Good article. The key thing to remember is that this was/is a joint operation between Russia, Iran, and North Korea (and to some extent, China) to upend the "rules-based" international order backed by a hegemonic West. Instead, we'd be back to "spheres of influence" with naturally, a larger and larger portion of Eastern Europe falling to either direct or puppet control by Moscow. (a move that Putin informed Xi about at the Olympics before it happened) Same in southeast Asia with China. Same in the Middle East with Iran.Biden’s mantra was that Ukraine is an isolated conflict, and that it was only a question of defending Kyiv for as long as it takes. There was no talk then of defending U.S. allies and global interests from Putin and Xi’s aim to create and wield a new world order. Nor did Hamas’s heinous terrorist attacks and atrocities against Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, 2023 make it clear to Team Biden that the risk to global security had expanded far beyond the front lines in Ukraine.
It seemed Putin and Xi’s visions of a new multi-polar order were openly clashing with traditional Western-style liberal democracy that had largely ensured global peace since the end of World War II in 1945. And the bad guys were winning.
Only one country fully understood what was at stake on a global basis: That was Ukraine, of course.
First, it'd only be small wars, but these things tend to snowball. It really could've become a catastrophic war if left unchecked. But it was checked due to a huge amount of military aid to Ukraine, significant sanctions on Russia, and absolutely phenomenal work by the Ukrainians themselves. They worked very hard to prevent a very dark future for Europe.