Ukraine strikes Russian refinery, one of the main suppliers of fuel to Moscow
Ukraine has disabled the Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez oil refinery in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod region, one of the main suppliers of fuel to Moscow
Apparently, the drones just followed the biggest signs. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Ukraine also hit 12 electrical substations and one gas substation in occupied territory over the past 2 days
No problem, they can just run backup generators with...oh.
Ukraine's casualty ratio with Russia widens
Now it's about 8 Russian casualties for every Ukrainian casualty. Earlier, it was more like 2:1 or maybe 3:1. What changed?
Extensive use of drones and the creation of "kill zones" where large swathes of the frontline are essentially swarms of drones just waiting for targets. So most Russian casualties occur before they ever see their enemy in person (if you've seen the Dunkirk movie, it's a bit like that) and getting wounded in a kill zone...well, let's just say that it's out-of-network.
Unfortunately, the Ukrainians also have to deal with the same tactics when they go on the offensive to try to liberate territory. Russian drone forces aren't as skilled or as well-equipped, but they're still difficult to deal with. This is a big part of the reason Ukraine is conducting its "middle strike" campaign to deprive these units of supplies, reducing their effectiveness.
Speaking of deprivation,
a Russian driver complains of a 35km queue for fuel. As someone who hates lines, that sounds like absolute torture. I'd rather sleep at work than commute and have to deal with that.
Some of these lines are getting so large that they're starting to be visible from space. And a lot of these are delivery trucks. So not only is it a fuel crisis, it's a transport crisis as well. I can't imagine most businesses doing well after missing a few deliveries.
But Russia is starting to try to deal with this crisis.
They've authorized using a lower-quality gasoline, which doesn't exactly stop Ukrainian drones from hitting Russian refineries or fuel trucks, but it might damage the engines of Russian vehicles, so there's that. I suppose the logic is that Russians will no longer complain about a lack of fuel if they no longer have a working vehicle.
Russia will also be importing fuel from Kazakhstan. There's just two wrinkles - 1) Kazakhstan doesn't produce lots of fuel so we're looking at 50,000 tons of fuel, which significant but much less than what Russia would need to end this crisis. 2) Kazakhstan wants jet fuel, which Russia is using heavily right now. Afaik, Russia doesn't have much to spare.
And countries that import fuel from Russia are facing shortages of their own - especially
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. So asian countries that Russia would import fuel from already have other urgent requests for fuel from these countries. Only so much to go around.
Meanwhile,
Georgia's only refinery will no longer process Russian crude. That's not good news for Russia, either.