Atheist Forum

Ukraine strikes back:



For starters, Ukraine strikes Russian corvette Boikyi at dock in St Petersburg. It was at dock for scheduled repairs, and now looks like it'll need much more extensive repairs, if it can be saved at all. This ship was previously used to escort shadow fleet tankers, to intimidate European countries from lawfully seizing ships engaging in illegal activity. No one is intimidated now.

Ukraine also struck St. Petersburg oil terminal, which produced a cloud of smoke for the attendees of Russia's Economic Forum (or rather, economic implosion forum) but unfortunately, only burned one tank. So no Tuapse today. Tomorrow...

"It is exceptionally humiliating for (Vladimir) Putin's home city to be attacked on the opening day of St. Petersburg International Economic Forum."

"Instead of being able to project a narrative of inevitable victory and strength, the opposite is true and won't be lost on attendees," Foreman said.

An interesting fact about these strikes is that to get from anywhere in Ukraine to St. Petersburg, you have to fly through a LOT of Russian airspace. And you'd think St. Petersburg would be the second-most well-protected place in Russia after Moscow, maybe even the top priority while Putin and foreign delegations are there. But Russia either didn't detect the drones or couldn't shoot them down, which points to a serious weakening of Russian AA.

Russia's fuel situation continues to worsen, with more gas stations in Crimea switching to rationing or simply not having any gasoline/diesel at all. And this crisis is spreading - gas stations in Belgorod, Kursk, and Luhansk are starting to restrict gasoline sales (currently refusing to fill portable canisters and limiting fill-ups to 20 liters - about 5.3 gallons - which is significantly less than a full tank for most vehicles)

Russia’s Druzhba oil exports to Hungary, Slovakia returns to normal levels. I'm not sure if that's going to continue, given Russia's deep fuel crisis, but that's no one's problem but Russia, Hungary, and Slovakia and they can deal with that between themselves. If Hungary and Slovakia eventually do get cut off form their favorite dealer, it's their own fault for anticipating the danger of relying on Russia and weening themselves off it over the last 4 years like everyone else.

And just in case people don't already know, Orban's decision to detain a Ukrainian banking convoy and keep the cash/gold was entirely a political decision lacking any legal basis - the decision didn't come from any Hungarian agency to Orban, it came from Orban to the agency. And Orban monitored the situation in real time, which is highly unusual and suggests a personal interest in the operation. And finally, the rationale for this operation was dissatisfaction with the lack of oil flowing through the Ukrainian section of the Druzhba oil pipeline - which the Russians had bombed earlier. So Orban's purported reason - alleged money laundering, which was never substantiated - appears to be just some BS he came up with after the fact to make it look like he was operating within Hungarian law when in fact he wasn't. Shocking revelations, I know, but it's important that truth overtakes the lie and that the reality of Orban's regime be accurately remembered.

In a complete coincidence now that Russian oil flows normally to Hungary, Hungary will no longer block Ukraine's EU membership. Though I should note that Hungary has not yet made a formal decision - so this is still tentative.

And the US House clears the way for a vote on the Ukraine Support Act.

It provides $8 billion in military financing loans to Ukraine, extends the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) through 2027, which allows for the U.S. to send Ukraine weapons directly from Pentagon stockpiles, additional sanctions against Russia, among other provisions.

“It’s between Ukraine or Putin, I choose Ukraine,” Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) answered when asked how he would vote on the discharge petition.

Yep, the "You Lie!" guy under Obama, and apparently willing to buck King Orange. Certainly no lack of boldness, I'll give him that. Suffice it to say that war (and politics) makes for strange bedfellows.

Another fun fact: he used to co-chair the Counter-Kleptocracy Caucus. How'd that work out? Any big successes there?

The children yearn for the mines: Putin advocates "allowing" Russian 12-year-olds to work

Russia is considering lowering the country’s working age to 12 and reopening Soviet child labour camps to solve a jobs crisis driven by the war in Ukraine.

Moscow’s children’s rights commissioner proposed the change to get young people into employment during the holidays, claiming “almost all of them want to work in the summer”.

Olga Yaroslavskaya argued the camps would provide employment and structure for teenagers, particularly those whose parents cannot afford to give them a “three-month fiesta”.

"Fiesta" is a very, very strange way to put it lol. And I suppose infancy is a "premier jubilee" and childhood is a "18-year-festival" since we're just stringing words together to incite a way of conceptualizing childhood as a form of deadbeatism, for political reasons of course. The State must be fed bodies, after all.

She cited her own experience working in the summer in a Soviet youth camp, saying: “In the 7th grade [year 8], we were taken to weed tomatoes in 40-degree heat in a barrack in the middle of the fields.”

“We survived, and moreover, I brought home 120 rubles,” the commissioner boasted.

Big "I was beaten as a kid and I turned out fine" energy here. Also, 120 rubles is less than $2 usd today. Presumably, it was more in the decades ago that she's talking about, but afaik, we're still not talking about big money.

And speaking of money, how do they intend to pay these kids? A lot of businesses are closing in Russia, so it's not like anyone can work there. And lots of Russians are simply working without getting paid, a problem so pervasive that it was part of a war recruitment ad, with the Kremlin being unusually upfront about its kleptocratic economy. Do they want the kids to work so they can also join in on the "joy" of unpaid labor?

Even the mobile fire groups (Russian anti-drone units in vehicles as a sort of makeshift AA) are now complaining about lack of fuel. And they're the ones supposedly shooting down Ukrainian drones so that Russian supply vehicles can possibly make it to their destinations. When the mobile fire groups run out of gas, there's no chance for anyone in the area to get gas.

Ukrainian drones attacked targets in Luhansk and there was a noticeable lack of AA or much movement on the ground - the Russians seem to be hunkering down in response to Ukrainian drone strikes. Due to Ukraine's heavy reliance on decoy drones, Russian AA is often silent due to a lack of AA missiles or trying to stay hidden to avoid Ukrainian drones or some other reason. No matter the exact cause, the Ukrainians now have fire control over the airspace in many occupied areas that were previously uncontested. It doesn't seem possible to continue to occupy territory frequently patrolled by Ukrainian drones, and it isn't. Putin will have to make a choice before long.

Meidas DeliversFINAL REPORT from Ukraine Amid DRONE ATTACKS!!

https://youtu.be/zZGH1MCzDjw?si=Q93XG1DDK2mdBjh

Lots of news lately, apologies on being somewhat behind.

Zelenskyy proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin to end the war in open letter

The choice is yours now.

Enough of the war.

Ukraine offers to end this war.

We must do it honestly, with dignity, and guarantee that there will be no new outbreak of war.

We see that the United States is paying all its attention to the issue of Iran, and it is wrong to simply wait for the turn of their attention to the war in Europe.

Ukraine proposes to end the war in the format between us and you.

I propose a meeting with you.

Full text of said letter

Predictably and pitifully, Putin rejected this offer (after first suggesting that Zelenskyy come to Moscow, which has got to be the most transparent assassination ploy ever). And like the little bunker baby he is, Putin whined about the "rude language" in Zelenskyy's letter.

I bet Putin is having second thoughts about letting his ego take the wheel, because the situation has worsened for Russia considerably since then.

St Petersburg was hit again

Ukraine struck Kronstadt Marine Plant (again), ammo storage near Lebyazhye, Poltavskaya oil depot in the Krasnodar region, Antipinsky Oil Refinery in Tyumen, as well as drone activity in Tula region, and drone activity in/near the seaport in occupied Mariupol (this is pretty fresh news, so details aren't yet clear)

Local residents and monitoring channels documented significant fallout near the island city of Kronstadt, a strategic hub housing a major base for the Russian Navy’s Baltic Fleet. Drone impacts triggered a fire and a prominent column of smoke in the immediate vicinity of the Kronstadt Marine Plant. The industrial facility is responsible for the maintenance, repair, and outfitting of Russian surface warships and submarines.

Simultaneously, secondary drone waves struck the settlement of Lebyazhye within the Leningrad region. Operational reports indicate that the strike targeted the 15th Arsenal of the Russian Navy, impacting a critical ammunition storage warehouse.

As you can probably tell, keeping all these attacks straight and not confusing them with earlier attacks is a hell of a challenge, so apologies if I botch something here or miss something there.

So here's the executive summary version:

Ukrainian drones increasingly patrol the roads along the southern front, including the vital Melitopol - Chonhar section of highway (Just fyi, here's a reddit post from 4 years ago where they discuss how cutting that logistic route will help in the liberation of Crimea. Psychics in action lol).

Russian forces in southern Ukraine are increasingly being cut off from supplies and fuel and things are getting dire, but don't take my word about it, they have to ration artillery strikes now. Only one reason for that.

Ukrainian strikes are doing very serious damage to Russian military-industrial capabilities, economy, and also image throughout the world. Russia was previously vilified, but now they're getting clobbered and look visibly weak. Russian civilians are rattled and increasingly in favor of ending the war. There are all sorts of videos of Russians witnessing explosions with real fear on their faces.

When this guy says "we'll stop shooting if you do" you damn well better stop shooting. You tell John Wick that you love puppies now and that if he lets you walk, you'll adopt 6 of them and care for them like family and you better mean it. That's the only viable way out of that situation.

If the US had a real leader, Ukraine would have won that war by now. Fortunately, under Biden they did get support when they needed it most.

In general, they got the support they asked for months after they asked for it, missing critical windows. The standout has to be the dithering from Germany about Taurus missiles. Ukraine asked for them, Scholz feared they'd be used on Russian territory (Just fyi, you don't see Iran refusing to sell Russia missiles for fear they'll hit Ukraine). Merz promised Taurus, Merz was elected, no Taurus. Then the position shifts to Ukraine doesn't need them by claiming that Ukraine's own missiles are better with secondary "we don't have enough" and "Ukraine might have trouble paying for them" excuses. Asinine.

Ukraine knows best what Ukraine needs. If they say they need Taurus, they need Taurus. End of story. Either give them what they ask for or visit Kyiv and watch the results of not sending them what they ask for. Look at ruined apartment buildings and ask yourself if you want that to happen closer to home.

He's right that Russia is adapting and very obviously tends to adopt Ukraine's playbook, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Russia will ever completely adapt or that they'll be able to use Ukrainian tactics as well as the Ukrainians themselves.

There are some key differences between Russia and Ukraine which prevents them from being on even playing field. While Russia undoubtedly has more resources at its disposal than Ukraine, it has been burning through them at a much faster rate with no signs of slowing - especially vehicles and manpower. There's a ticking clock and it started on Feb 24th 2022.

Additionally, Ukrainian drones continue to benefit from Starlink communications and spy satellite reconnaissance. These are massive advantages and the satellites especially are vastly underappreciated assets among the global audience reading about this war.

When comparing Ukraine and Russia, most people talk sheer numbers of troops or tanks or drones but a critical component is which side gets up-to-date intel faster and has the communications infrastructure to make decisions quickly. Ukraine dominates Russia in this area and that edge allows Ukraine to make magic happen in occupied territory or even Russia itself. There's a reason why Russia hits apartment blocks - because it can see them. It's the same reason why Ukraine hits logistics vehicles, logistics hubs, ammo depots, drone control centers, drone storage, etc.

To put it simply, if two expert snipers are trying to shoot each other and one has eyes in the sky, who's going to win?

Russian telegram continues to be hilarious.

Putin decides to continue the war, Lavrov says that the outcome of the war will be determined on the battlefield

Indeed, it will.