Putin's Invasion of Ukraine

[Hydra009]

Michael Bay shot at 42 seconds in. I'll post a better version of this later on when I find one.

Also, it's a big shock that another mechanized assault failed. Ukraine has plenty of eyes in the sky and even a couple in space, and convoys aren't exactly stealthy. It's so bewildering to me how little they learn. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

[Hydra009]

The war has returned to Moscow.





I don't think I can properly impress upon everyone how significant and important this news is. This is the biggest shift of the war since Operation Spiderweb. This isn't some small retaliatory operation, this the largest attack on Moscow since WWII. This part of Russia has far and away the strongest air defense - I counted 4 layers of air defense - 3 layers of which were breached with military/industrial targets hit regardless. The best Russian air defense cannot fully repel Ukrainian attacks. Nowhere in Russia is safe.

Often times in failed wars, the aggressor country merely exhausts itself and can't continue the war. Other times, the war comes back to the aggressor and the aggressor suffers until it begs for peace. I expected the former, but here we are with the latter. Many things might happen now that were previously unlikely. Russia may not just be militarily unable to continue the war, Russia may collapse and Putin's reign may be far closer to being over than most people believe. Those cards are now in the deck and Ukraine draws more cards than Trump believes, and Zelenskyy plays Risk while Trump plays Solitaire with his own 47-card deck, so whatever Trump believes is of little consequence.

Putin is no doubt in shock at this daring attack and I expect peace talks to finally begin with the appearance of sincerity this time, at least as a delaying action. But I hope the pressure continues and Ukraine gets far better peace terms than expected.

[Cassia]

Putin's yes men can't run a war, neither can Trump's morons.

[Unbeliever]

Putin Bombs American Factories and Trump Says Nothing

https://youtu.be/thH_4oo0bFk?si=7b8hjBYS7-xQyTrz

[Hydra009]

Yeah, lots of very frustrating and disappointing news with that guy. At least the easing of oil sanctions on Russia has ended.

[Hydra009]

Jeez, the devastation is really something else. I have seen footage of some drones in Moscow accidentally getting caught on obstacles or getting shot out of the sky (Russian air defense does sometimes work), so they definitely don't all reach their target. Fortunately, Ukraine launched enough for some to be successful and that's really all that matters.

One Moscow resident complained that Russian air defense hit residential buildings, which is not unusual. Additionally, Russians complain that other Russians are so eager to find news about the Moscow strikes and the Russian authorities have been silent, so naturally, they consume any news at all. And since the pro-Russian side isn't saying anything, they flock to pro-Ukrainian or Russian opposition sites/broadcasts about it, allowing Ukraine to create the narrative - a narrative where the tide has turned and Russia is now losing big time. It seems likely that Putin is going to cut internet access altogether because Russians finding out how poorly the war is going for Russia is not beneficial for Putin's war aims.

[Hydra009]

In addition to the strikes in Moscow (which hit the Moscow oil refinery, the Solnechnogorskaya oil pumping station, the Volodarskaya oil pumping station, the Angstrem semiconductor plant) Ukraine also struck Crimea.

Ukraine hit the following at/near the Belbek military airfield in temporarily occupied Crimea:

a Pantsir-S2 anti-aircraft missile system

a storage facility containing radar equipment for an S-400 system

an Orion UAV control system and a ground control station for Forpost UAVs

a ground-to-air data transmission point

the air traffic control tower and a hangar at Belbek airfield

In general, Ukrainian forces have slowly but surely tightened its grip on Crimea, destroying Russian logistics, and making Russian occupation miserable and ultimately, impossible. First, Ukraine struck the Kerch bridge, denying its safe use by the Russian military. So, the Russians instead ferried in military supplies. Those were also all hit by Ukraine. Russia built a rail line from eastern Ukraine through Crimea. That was also hit. And finally, even the highway has been hit.



Supplies are not completely cut, but they are endangered in ways they weren't before. Crimea is put under increasing pressure - essentially, the whole island is under siege - and once it breaks Russian supply, it will no longer be possible for Russian forces to keep that territory. It might take a while, but it looks like Ukraine is hellbent on returning Crimea and in the words of the Russians in 2022, "the enemy will simply have to accept this new political reality"

[Hydra009]

How the sausage gets made:



Ukraine now has an aerial drone carrying 8 unguided rockets, which it fires, then the drone itself slams into the building, exploding with 60kg of explosives onboard plus whatever the missiles hit. As you can see, the accuracy isn't amazing on this, aerial drones aren't very stable platforms and there's EW and latency issues. But if just a few of them hit, that's much more spread-out destruction that Russia has to contend with. I'd love to see footage of one of these engaging a bunch of Russian oil tanks. Ukraine can now inflict even worse damage than what they inflicted at Tuapse.

The Ukrainians have also developed their own glide bomb

250kg warhead. 60km range.

Ukraine has previously been reliant on US-made JDAMs. So why the switch? Ukraine's version is much cheaper, very precise, and can be deployed very quickly, regardless of weather conditions.

And due to the instability of some partnerships (and the mental instability of some leaders) Ukraine has had to prioritize domestic production of its weapons so that terms of use may not be dictated and important equipment may not be subject to dithering as civilians die or worse, withheld after a phone call from Putin. Ukraine has to not only defend itself, but also defend its right to defend itself. Such is the nature of Russia's hybrid war.

[Cassia]

.....The Ukrainians have also developed their own glide bomb
250kg warhead. 60km range.
Ukraine has previously been reliant on US-made JDAMs. So why the switch? Ukraine's version is much cheaper, very precise, and can be deployed very quickly, regardless of weather conditions.
And due to the instability of some partnerships (and the mental instability of some leaders) Ukraine has had to prioritize domestic production of its weapons so that terms of use may not be dictated and important equipment may not be subject to dithering as civilians die or worse, withheld after a phone call from Putin. Ukraine has to not only defend itself, but also defend its right to defend itself. Such is the nature of Russia's hybrid war.

Seems Ukraine learned a lesson when they gave up their nuclear weapons with guarantees that they would not be attacked.

[Hydra009]

Seems Ukraine learned a lesson when they gave up their nuclear weapons with guarantees that they would not be attacked.

Yeah, that was a HUGE mistake. And one that'll have far-reaching effects because now, countries that previously were very much against the bomb are now much less opposed.