Putin's Invasion of Ukraine

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But it's not all good news.

Four new liquefied natural gas tankers now bear a Russian flag - indicating an expansion of Russian shadow fleet vessels attempting to bypass sanctions

The Russian-occupied town of Oleshky, just south of Kherson on the other side of the river, is in a state of humanitarian crisis. Roads in and out are blocked off. Shortages of food/water/medical care, no reliable electricity/gas supplies, and subject to deliberate Russian brutality. They've appealed for relief from aid agencies like The Red Cross and proposed evacuations through a humanitarian corridor, to no avail.

It's strange that Russia doesn't just let them go. Russia doesn't benefit at all from trapping mostly elderly residents in a ruined town and depriving them of basic necessities. But that just goes to show that the cruelty is the point. Russia claims that it is "liberating" such places, but the reality on the ground is one of suffering and genocide. The inescapable conclusion is that genocide is the goal.

There's footage from other Russian-occupied towns - taken by Russian soldiers - and while some fare better or worse than others, in general, it's a scene of ruin and deprivation. Nothing is maintained, supplies are iffy at best, and residents struggle. This is deliberate. Putin wanted to make it more like Russia and it certainly is.

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Ukraine also hit two Russian helicopters



Oof. That guy's never going to be the head of a major corporation.

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Tankies without tanks. Not even a lone T-34.

Strange that they don't just use Armata tanks, considered as Putin has rejected sending them to Ukraine. Also, another huge morale loss for Russia, since their parades are basically like giant advertisements for the might of the state. Not mighty at all, as it is plain to see.

[Cassia]

No tanks! That's crazy. Also, the Russians don't make much of an effort to collect their dead. I am sure that's so they can just list them as missing and save paying money to their families.

[Unbeliever]

No tanks!? No thanks!

[Cassia]

No tanks!? No thanks!

As a side note, reports indicate IDF Merkava tanks were taking a beating from Hezbollah drones in Lebanon. Until countermeasures are deployed, maybe it's best to leave tanks in the garage or at least well back. Seems HAMAS didn't have the tech that Hezbollah does.

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Tuapse hit for the 4th time, just as the fires were dying down. Aww jeez. No kill like overkill. You can see the smoke plume from aircraft. It's also visible from space, akin to a volcano eruption.



I am legit worried for the Russians, because this stuff is terrifying.

Ukraine struck Russian Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft deep in Russia (east of Moscow, just north of Kazakhstan)

This airbase is located in the Urals, about 1300km away from Ukraine. Ukrainian drones crossed the border, flew 1300km through Russian airspace without getting shot down, possibly without even being shot at all, and precisely hit their targets. This is a hell of an achievement.

Ukraine ran a months-long operation against an Akhmat unit in Sumy region thanks to intel from a Russian defector - inflicting heavy losses

HUR said that in early 2025 it established contact with an “Akhmat” serviceman who collected sensitive information within the unit and passed it to Ukrainian intelligence. He later moved to Ukrainian-controlled territory.

According to the agency, he helped collect intelligence on the unit, including by placing a listening device in a meeting room using an FPV drone.

In the intercepted recordings, “Akhmat” commander Apti Alaudinov discusses planned operations in the Sumy direction and acknowledges serious problems within his forces.

“We both know that most of our artillery crews and tank teams don’t even know how to shoot properly,” he is heard saying. “They may know many things, but they can’t actually hit anything.”

He adds that despite years of fighting, the unit still lacks combat readiness. “For four years of war… they haven’t really fought,” he says.

The agency claimed the unit suffered heavy losses over the course of the operation, including 41 killed, 87 wounded, and more than 100 missing, along with significant equipment losses such as armored vehicles, UAVs, communications systems, and fuel and ammunition depots.

For some strange reason, there are a lot more videos of the Russians expressing their frustration with the war and their desire for making peace. Unfortunately, one-man rule means that only one vote is counted - the rest of the votes are thrown in the trash. So Putin better change his mind (or perhaps he can be "persuaded" somehow). If he returns Russian troops to Russia, there will be not only peace, but also a resumption of trade. Everything may change in a heartbeat.

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Igor Girkin (nom de guerre: Strelkov/shooter) is a key Russian figure who masterminded the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is responsible for shooting down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, resulting in 298 civilian deaths. He's been in Russian prison for a year or two now because he mistakenly gave an overly sober and realistic assessment of the war which could be interpreted as directly critical of Putin. Putin is notoriously weak to criticism, so off to jail.

But even in jail, Girkin somehow manages to weigh in. Bear in mind that he's no dove - he wants the Russian invasion of Ukraine to be successful and is very much opposed to Ukraine's goals of self-defense and integration into the EU.

But even he has said that he opposes Russian mass mobilization because it's too late for that. He says that it would've been a good idea in 2024 and 2025 but Ukraine's current drone advantage makes that pointless now. He says that Russia is headed towards military defeat.

Commenting from inside a Russian jail after being sentenced for earlier criticism of Putin, he said the dictator’s war “has quite clearly reached a dead end” and was now “costing an enormous number of lives without any result.”

Strelkov mocked Russia’s “brilliant leaders and commanders who over four years have missed absolutely every opportunity to achieve victory.”

Russia is now “desperate” and “heading towards a military defeat.”

Hardliner Strelkov — real name Igor Girkin — said it was too late for mass mobilization because Russia is too weak.

“You can mobilize as many people to the front as you like — they will not be able to turn the course of the war. That moment has passed," he said. “It is pointless. Our economy does not even have enough weapons to arm them.”

Even though I dislike this guy immensely, I appreciate his candor and his criticisms of Russian military decisions are often shown to be generally accurate in hindsight. Perhaps this one is accurate as well.

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Hmmm...

You know, when you come up to a candidate of any political affiliation and you tell them you have an envelope full of cash for them and their first reaction is "How much?" that's a bit of a red flag, regardless of whether or not it has a hammer and sickle on it.

It didn't help that she was like "Well...we can't really take cash...BUT we can take donations online" *wink wink*

Eventually, the staffers caught on, probably because there was a cameraman. Imagine what would happen if it wasn't so obviously being filmed.

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A second Russian cargo ship carrying grain stolen from occupied Ukraine approached port in Israel, but this time, it left without unloading cargo, presumably refused access.

What changed? Zelesnkyy and the EU threatened sanctions.

Israel has of course made a stink about having to do the right thing, complaining that the dispute was publicized on social media channels (I do sympathize with their argument that diplomatic relations should not be conducted over Twitter - yes, they actually called it by its deadname. Mensch move. Also, the only official business that should ever be conducted on Twitter are Klan rallies). But Ukrainian diplomats did meet with Israeli diplomats and made their case, and imho, that sounds official enough to me. So I don't get that objection.

Israel also disputed that there was evidence that proves it was illegal grain and say that they "cannot order a businessman to terminate a grain purchase contract" without being sued. For starters, I'm pretty sure Israel does all sorts of things that aren't technically within the bounds of law, so that's a strange thing to worry about. And secondly, is it really reasonable to put the whole onus on Ukraine to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the grain is stolen within a pretty narrow window of time or the deal goes through? Let's say you go to a cop and say that a car is being stolen. You don't have to prove everything to the cop while the car speeds off into the distance, do you? The normal procedure is for the cop to open an investigation, check the car out, conclude if it's stolen or not, then take appropriate action. Admittedly, I don't know much about Israeli law, but it seems prudent to at least investigate before accepting the shipment.

Here's what the Ukrainians want Israel to do next:

"A request for legal assistance has already been submitted to the relevant Israeli authorities," Kravchenko said. He emphasized that Ukraine is asking its Israeli partners to detain the ship and its cargo, search it, secure the ship’s and cargo documents, take grain samples, and question the crew members.

I mean just checking out the ship and its documents would be a big thing. Granted, the Russians do all sorts of shenanigans to make illicit trade difficult to detect, including turning off transponders and making transfers while at sea (cause enough to refuse a sale, imho). But Israel did absolutely nothing the previous time, and nothing simply isn't enough.

Imho, the gold standard should be that anything that looks fishy is fishy - ships should be refused unless everything is above board. Admittedly, I know basically nothing about international law and maritime trade, but at least I can confidently say that I've never purchased stolen goods.