Putin's Invasion of Ukraine

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The past couple of days have been a hotbed of political discontent - from Ukrainian citizens to military unit commanders to senior officials. There has been a flurry of posts about it on Telegram, usually portraying Syrsky negatively and portraying Fedorov positively. There have also been 3 straight days of protests about it - which is especially notable because during wartime, gathering in a crowd is particularly risky and these are very large crowds.

Today, there is a reason to be cautiously hopeful that this may be resolved in a positive way. Zelenskyy plans another major decision after talks with key officials

The Ukrainian leader says the initiative follows an extended series of discussions and consultations with key government officials.

The planned measures will also be shaped by direct feedback from both the public and members of the military.

"Yesterday and today have been filled with consultations. Of course, I hear what people are saying. Today, I spoke at length with Mykhailo Fedorov. I also spoke with Oleksandr Syrskyi today. Decisions regarding the army will be worked out," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

It is heartening to hear that the Ukrainian government is listening to the protestors. That in itself is a significant improvement over lots of governments in the world today, mine included. It is likely that this upcoming change will involve Fedorov in some way. If this ends positively, I expect a Blue Lantern ring in the mail.

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Kyiv was hit very hard by ballistic missiles

The Russians once again targeted civilians. Additionally, they hit a large warehouse, no doubt in retaliation for the warehouse that was recently hit by Ukraine.

I've noticed a bit of a pattern to these attacks. Russia hits targets that are superficially similar to what the Ukrainians hit, attempting to "one up" Ukraine in the news cycle. Ukraine hits a Russian warship, Russia hits a Ukrainian grain ship. Ukraine hits Russian military logistics vehicles, Russia hits a Ukrainian bus. Ukraine hits a Russian refinery, triggering long lines at gas stations, Russia hits a Ukrainian gas station. Etc. They're not exactly identical targets and Ukraine is noticeably focusing more on military targets (or targets that directly support the war effort like the shadow fleet), but in Russian state media, those civilian buses are full of NATO death squads and those civilian houses in Kyiv are full of Polish mercenaries or somesuch.

But before Ukraine was striking back, Russia was already attacking civilians - hospitals, schools, homes, even bizarre targets like zoos and farms (what sort of military threat is a zoo?!) so it's not like Ukraine pulling its punches would accomplish anything. Instead, Ukraine is forced to escalate to dismantle the Russian threat and protect its civilians.

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A Russian Tu-95 bomber is confirmed destroyed:



This was reported a few days ago and confirmed by both the Ukrainian military and Russian milblogger fighterbomber, but we have satellite footage and yeah, that plane is in two pieces. Unmistakably destroyed.

Russia lacks the ability to produce these planes, so every loss counts.

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The logistics situation in Crimea

A convoy of trucks drive by a destroyed truck then a truck in the convoy is hit - all of this happens in less than 3 minutes. 3 minutes in a who knows how long drive. They're like baby turtles trying to make it to the sea.

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Hybrid warfare: In rare move, France identifies Russian hacking unit targeting France for the past 20 years

France has officially accused Russia of spying on it.

military unit 61240, located near Krasnoye Selo, southwest of Saint Petersburg, is identified as being responsible for targeting France, both through signals intelligence and cyberattacks.

In 2014, ministerial entities were compromised. Since at least 2017, email accounts belonging to senior officials at the Ministry of the Armed Forces have been hacked, and even worse, the report specifies that the threat remains active against the ministry and the entities under its supervision.

In 2018, the French embassy in Moscow was also compromised. And that malicious code is still active to the current year, so this is still a very much in-progress cyberattack by the Russian FSB.

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Ukraine struck a second Wildberries warehouse

On July 20, drones attacked the logistics center of the Russian marketplace Wildberries in the city of Podolsk, Moscow Region. A massive fire broke out at the site of the attack, according to Telegram channels. There were also reports of a strike on an oil depot in the village of Lvovsky on the outskirts of Podolsk. A fire broke out there as well.

Wildberries is a Russian retailer with large warehouses similar to Amazon. I have to specify that because there are some real smoothbrains on twitter who seem to think that the name is literally true - that it's some 180,000 square meter "wildberry factory" cause that's super plausible. Yeah, and Target is an archery store.





Anyway, here's the updated bingo card:



And yes, they sell a lot of dual-use stuff as well as being used as storehouses by the Russian military so they're arguably a military target.

“Wildberries is selling military equipment on a large scale, including body armour and surveillance technology. … Russian online marketplaces, including Wildberries, are actively supplying drone components to the front line – in other words, for lethal weapons which are used to attack civilian targets in Ukraine.

Source: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/80674

Also, these sorts of strikes have done wonders for getting normally apolitical Russians to suddenly care about foreign policy and whether or not Putin should be president. They don't care about Bucha or Kyiv being bombed or even 1.4 million Russian casualties, but man, do they care when they lose a lot of money from a retailer going up in flames. One Russian entrepreneur (uphill battle right there) suggested taking his small business out of Russia to safeguard it. Excellent idea! Shoulda been doing that since 2022, but better late than never.

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When over a million American died of Covid, so many didn't care either. But have them wear a fucking mask, WOW! Most people are pure asshats. Only "nice" or caring when it suits them. But we love to celebrate ourselves. I was disillusioned on the reality of H. Sapiens by age 7.

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Yeah, stuff that's "distant" psychologically speaking has less of an impact than stuff that directly affects a person. So someone might not care about people dying of covid, especially when they're complete strangers, but they definitely care about the discomfort and departure from normalcy of wearing a mask and their favorite dine-in restaurant being closed.

That's why in politics, it's extremely important to bottom-line otherwise abstract problems for people. For example, with Ukraine, I don't tell other Americans that Ukraine is in trouble (they don't care), I tell them that US allies and interests are under threat. They care a lot more about that.

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Ukraine struck 7 more ships today, bringing the grand total for the month up to 183.

Incredible attrition. It goes without saying that no country can sustain those sorts of losses for long. Russia needs to solve this and fast or soon there'll be nothing left.

Putin knows this and redeployed some of Russia's elite Rubikon drone operators from the frontline and ordered them to guard the ships instead. Do you know how badly things have to be in order to pull elites from the frontline? That's a last resort imho.

Several locations near Moscow are burning - the Wildberries warehouse as well as additional buildings. Also, an industrial park near St Petersburg

Ukraine's 225th assault regiment captures 64 Russian soldiers. Staggering number. Apparently, the Russians were sent to infiltrate into Ukrainian-held territory, plant flags, and then run back. Even if successful, that's not exactly devastating for Ukraine. According to their account, the Ukrainians discovered them, surrounded them (figuratively, probably not literally, the Ukrainians could direct their fire along different vectors, preventing the Russians from moving) and attacked them with mortars and drones until they surrendered. They did, immediately received food and water, and now the Ukrainians have 64 Russian PoWs to trade for 64 Ukrainian PoWs. The Russians get to live, and the Ukrainians get some of their own back. It worked out nicely for everyone involved.

The Russians' tale of how they got captured was fascinating and I recommend checking it out. Ukraine's 225th has been to some of the fiercest battles - Bakhmut, Avdiivka , Chasiv Yar, Kursk - and is notable in their skill at taking prisoners. It probably also helps that the Russians are more willing to surrender than they were in the past.

Ukraine destroyed a MLRS in route. Lots of fireworks.

Ukrainian drones strike Russian FSB coordination center in occupied Kherson Oblast

Thirteen Ukrainian drones struck a coordination center and a base used by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) in the Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on July 20.

Preliminary reports indicated that around 100 Russian service members may have been present at the facility at the time of the attack, the SBU said.

And finally, Russia's Ministry of Finance has suspended government debt auctions indefinitely due to the market collapse

"Due to market collapse" I definitely did a double-take on that one. Russia's finances aren't what they used to be and it's only a matter of time until something breaks in a big way.

In the third quarter, the Ministry of Finance planned to raise 1.5 trillion rubles on the debt market for the budget, whose deficit reached 5.7 trillion rubles by the end of June. However, so far, it has only managed to borrow 8.8 billion rubles in net prices, according to analysts at Vector Capital.

Goal of 1.5 trillion rubles, got 8.8 billion (around 0.6% of the goal)

on July 1, it attempted to sell the securities, but only managed to sell 10% of the stated volume (10.3 billion rubles out of 110 billion); on July 8, the auction was cancelled; and on July 15, it was cancelled "due to a lack of bids at acceptable price levels."

No takers. Yikes.