Putin's Invasion of Ukraine

[Hydra009]

Russian pipeline assault fails, then fails, then fails, then fails...

I'm pretty sure this is the one where there was footage today of a Russian soldier getting hit by a Ukrainian drone that didn't explode. Now, what would you do in that situation? Back away slowly and count your blessings? Walk away? Run away? Jog away? Do a handstand and walk away on your hands? Do a silly walk away? Or...you could grab a branch and slam it into the inactive drone until *something* happens. Take a guess what this guy did. It's literally the "unknown technology" meme.

There's also footage of the aftermath of a missile strike on an Akhmat position. Looks like a hell of a sleepover - estimated 60 sleepyheads (at least several dozen by my count). Shoulda stayed in Russia.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine recaptures Stepnohirsk

Ukraine has been steadily liberating small settlements ever since the Russians were cut off from Starlink. It rarely makes big news. You look on a map, and there's a tiny bit of green (liberated from Russian control) in a sea of red (taken under Russian control) in Ukraine's south and east. So what makes this important? Well, it helps protect the region - especially Zaporizhzhia city - from Russian advances and further, it's a necessary stepping stone on the way to Tokmak and Melitopol. If Ukraine takes either of them, Russian forces in the region are in a bind. If Ukraine takes both and holds them, the southern front collapses for Russia and Ukraine would have the much simpler task of focusing on the eastern front.

If Ukraine pushes very far in the south, the war could quickly deteriorate for Russia. So it's amazing that Russian forces have largely failed to have success there, and not only that, they also failed to prevent Ukrainians forces from having success there.

[Hydra009]

For the past couple of years, Russian commanders have been under increasing pressure to tell Putin good news - to say that they've captured this settlement and advanced a few kilometers. But brazenly lying about blowing up 50,000 himars with a rusty spoon is not an option. So they switched to a "captured in advance" tactic where they prematurely tell the brass that a certain settlement has been captured - and it's not a complete lie - Russian forces are advancing and have already captured some of it and it'll probably fall soon. If anything, it appears prescient.

Well...what happens when you make those sorts of big claims but afterwards, your advance comes to a screeching halt? These reports are exposed as obviously fictitious and even Russian milbloggers cry foul. Hell, they often times don't even try to do "flag assaults" anymore (risky operations where one or two guys run into a settlement, plant the Russian flag, take a picture, and then get the hell out before the Ukrainians blow them to bits - done right, it creates the illusion of territory under control that isn't actually under control). Now, they just shoot video near some ruins in firmly Russian-held territory, say it's from some other place, and who's going to know the difference? Hell, anyone who calls BS is trying to besmirch the Russian military and may be arrested.

Putin is not an internet guy - he relies heavily on these sorts of reports for war planning and he genuinely appears to uncritically accept these reports. Thus the cycle of garbage in, garbage out. Paradoxically, authoritarian regimes crave war to prop themselves up domestically but are terrible at fighting wars due to a culture of lying and an inability to engage with reality, which is a fatal mistake in war. It's why they often lose.

[Cassia]

I saw a video of a Russian soldier who came across a drone sitting on the ground, so he proceeded to hit it with a stick until he blew himself up. Where do they find these people?

[Hydra009]

I saw a video of a Russian soldier who came across a drone sitting on the ground, so he proceeded to hit it with a stick until he blew himself up. Where do they find these people?

Yeah, I saw that one. The drone crashed into him but didn't explode, so he whacked it with a stick until it did. (An identical thing happened to a Ukrainian soldier, a Russian drone hit him in the back but didn't detonate, so he walked away)

The Russians certainly don't recruit for intelligence, and they're reaping the rewards. Low-tier training and equipment = low-tier results.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

Partisans (Atesh) burned down a train in St Petersburg today. Not in some random town in Russia with minimal security, in the heart of the beast.

"Agents of our movement conducted a successful operation in Saint Petersburg — by setting it on fire, they disabled a locomotive used for transporting oil cargo and supporting supply chains for the region's industrial and energy infrastructure," the statement said.

The partisan movement reported that as a result of the locomotive fire, the enemy's northwestern logistics are operating under constant pressure, and the railway infrastructure is overloaded.

"Any disruption at key points leads to delays in fuel and raw material supplies. The region's industrial enterprises depend on these supply chains. Especially since Ust-Luga — one of the key centers for the export of oil and petroleum products — is located nearby," ATESH added.

Every little bit helps. For want of a train, a port didn't receive enough cargo. For want of cargo, a ship couldn't get fully loaded. For want of a ship, a promised shipment was delayed. For failure of a shipment, money was not received. For want of money, a war was lost.

[Hydra009]

Lots of wild news about strikes on Russian targets. I should be ecstatic. Instead, I'm having trouble keeping up with the news feed about it. A nice problem to have, but still a bit of a problem.

If it bleeds, it leads: Ukraine strikes Russian FSB HQ in Kherson region, killing around 100. Ukraine also bagged a nearby Pantsir AA.

Ukraine struck Syzran oil refinery. If you were wondering about the extent of the damages for the earlier attack on Moscow and Ryazan refineries, it was extensive enough to completely halt production. The refinery in Nizhny Novgorodnefteorgsintez was partially shut down, with about half its production offline. This means that about a quarter of Russia's gasoline/diesel production is either offline or significantly reduced and this is just from the recent targets. As you might imagine, central Russia is now bracing for gasoline (petrol) shortages.

It's also worth noting that Ukraine strikes Russian refineries about twice as much as they did last year. From where I'm sitting, it's almost every day. And when it takes weeks or months for them to even partially come back online, that's a big problem. The math on that certainly works in Ukraine's favor.

Here's the refinery bingo card for those playing at home:



Almost everything has been hit at least once. Some got hit a half a dozen times. Note that the vast majority of the untouched refineries are around 2000 km or more away from Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces also hit a Tor AA and MLRS. Ukraine also hit a s-300 AA. Ukraine also struck a rare T-63 artillery near Lyman and a fuel tanker in the southern direction.

Lots of kabooms in a lot of different places.

[Hydra009]

[Hydra009]

A young Russian girl uploaded a video of her crying profusely (with drippy mascara) because she got banned on TikTok for promoting a Russian drone-making plant looking to recruit teens to help them kill Ukrainians. She says she fears "dying in poverty"

WHAT. THE. FUCK.

Over the past 4 years, I've seen a lot of death notices of Ukrainians - some military, some civilian - who died from Russian drone strikes. Hell, just recently, I learned about a Ukrainian medic who surrendered at Azovstal who was apparently tortured to death in Russian captivity. And a civilian couple who were just living their life when a drone attack tore through their apartment, killing them. Or 12-year-old and 17-year-old sisters who died in Kyiv in the Russian attack. Their father died in combat in 2023, now only their mom survives.

This Russian is crying about being banned from TikTok, but what really she's crying about is not being allowed to profit off these deaths.

Words can't fully express my full revulsion and anger at this type of attitude towards war. And this is not an uncommon attitude in Russia. No decency, no compassion - even for fellow civilians - no apologies, no remorse, just selfishness and cruelty. In short, no humanity. From the brass to the lowliest grunt to its civilian population, to even its children. A society that prides itself on cruelty and destruction, not creativity, innovation, care-giving, pursuit of knowledge, personal growth, and advancing as a species.

How on Earth can there ever be peace? Even Putin kicking the bucket won't fix this. What can men do against such reckless hate?